Reviews / Reader Comments


 

Feb 9, 2014

Govopoly Tweets

The book Govopoly.com from @TradingTribe sends a timely & protective warning about unstoppable trends. Protect yourself: read it.

Do you follow macro trends? Ok wise up- pay attention to the message of Ed Seykota @TradingTribe 39thDay.com /cc @TradingTribe

Feb 8, 2014

A Thing of Beauty

Chief Ed,

The book is a thing of beauty.

It is absolutely great.

I give it a 10 out of 10.

My trading account is growing in 2014, in a big way, partly as a result of simply listening very closely ("attending") to what you have to say. I enjoy being in the right instruments ("place") at the right time.

Thanks for the Govopoly book. It is a very useful work. I like how I can hand it to any reasonably intelligent person and experience them enjoying it, and understanding it.

I like how people, who do not report enjoying economics, report enjoying your book. It's extremely cool. At home, I leave it out. When friends & family come over I wait, and when they signal interest (by picking the book up) we talk.

When everything is in alignment, there is nothing to do. Thank you for your book.

My Best Regards,

Feb 6, 2014

Stomach in Free Fall

Dear Ed,

I listen to your podcast with Michael Covel. I feel my stomach free fall.

This is how I feel the day Lehman fell, Sept. 22, 2008. "This is going to get ugly", I mumbled at my ex-cubicle. Our sales floor was fired January 5th, 2009.

The system changed, it's different. I felt myself free fall, nauseous, scared, and excited. I realize the world's system changed. I accept, adapt and enjoy life. Thank you for everything.

Feb 6, 2014

Assimilation

Ed,

This article addresses people resenting decisions about their lives being made in D.C. and not their local communities.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/370420/problems-power-inequality-jonah-goldberg

Feb 5, 2014

Partisan Politics

Ed,

Great book and great podcast with Michael Covel. The podcast ended and I have three additional pages of notes in my notebook.

Your interview nicely complements your book. “No partisan politics”, no picking sides, no blaming anyone. Just pointing out anomalies and inconsistencies in the current system to those with an open mind.

I enjoyed your blunt and honest comments on how you cleaned up your thinking which led to understanding.

I think everyone should listen to your interview and read your book at least twice.

Regards.

Feb 5, 2014

Covel Interview

Ed --

I enjoy listening to the Michael Covel interview linked to in FAQs.

My imagination is piqued by thinking of cancer as an assimilation process that must be caught early by screening instead of too late by symptoms.

I also like your remarks about understanding and adapting to Govopoly instead of emotionally reacting to it and then seeking medicative "solutions".

I look forward to the Austin Tribe Spring 2014 meetings.

Feb 4, 2014

Podcast

Dear Ed,

I have been listening to your podcast with Michael Covel. It was very good to hear your thoughts on assimilation and your book Govopoly. The specific example of the assimilation of Detroit's wealth into DC, reminds me of the law of conservation of energy.

It was also a first hand experience of your jovial attitude. I thoroughly enjoyed your talk, thank you for entertaining and generating my interest in Govopoly.

regards

Feb 4, 2014

Worms

Ed,

I enjoy reading your book.

I feel an intimacy with the words. I believe this is from investing time and effort with the author.

I find this author/reader relationship very unique.

So far, I think you have a masterpiece. Very entertaining, filled with Importance.

I have a few editorial comments in case you ever have a 2nd edition.

On Page 55 the text "brown" references "purple" in the graph.

As a matter of style, I would change the shading on the pictures / graphs such that graphs bordered with gray do not diffuse with the 3-D shading like they do. I find them fuzzy rather than sharp or clear. Examples are on pgs 39, 54, 55, etc. the picture on page 71 is different because of the picture border.

I like your disclosure of the purpose of the worm in your gut. This type of disclosure probably takes "guts" for most, but I sense it is easy for you and I commend you with all the honor I can muster.

I think I realize my worm is I feel I have not achieved, or don't currently, do enough. Let's see... Sailing - National champion, 14 years of Texas circuit champion, Business - I have owned no less than 5 businesses, I helped a few hundred people realize 100 million dollars for their water rights In the Texas Panhandle, I am the father to a wonderful son, the partner of a wonderful woman, I am currently getting requests from the Texas Legislature to come help them with policy formation, and I have successfully spread the message about the difference between feelings sharing and cognitive rational thinking to a few people.

I also wonder where my next paycheck or source of income is going to come from but don't seem to care as much as I would of at a younger age. I know part of this is due to my water company standing aside of Govopoly type movements.

Somehow, I still feel I have something to do. I don't know how yet to let my worm out. I look at the Seattle Seahawks defense (Super Bowl) and I feel inspiration in the building and tuning a achieving team. I enjoy the competition, work and effort this sort of thing takes. Steve Jobs comes to [mind].

I thank you for your book. It is quite beautiful.

Truly,

Feb 1, 2014

Receives Govopoly

I receive the book on 1-31-2014, my birthday. A very nice birthday gift and I have a feeling of excitement and wonder at what I will learn. I am in the process of digging into it now, so far I love it - and will report back.

Thanks for the gift!

Feb 1, 2014

Govopoly Review

Ed, I just finish reading "Govopoly," I really enjoy reading it. The way you format the book, with easy language spaced-out nicely and with lots of engaging pictures, makes it especially enjoyable to read. And yes, of course, you make fascinating points and observations throughout the book. And yes, it's a bit of a depressing read as you suggest at the end, but I'm better off experiencing the pain of understanding now before the real pain explodes and the charade ends abruptly.

I wonder how the Assimilation Cycle will play out in other countries. Seems like Japan, China, Russia, much of Europe, and India all walk in lock-step with the U.S. and our Assimilation Cycle. Heck, it seems like those other countries are closer to the end-game than we are. Boy, to the extent the U.S. Assimilation Cycle co-depends on our trading partners' Assimilation Cycles...yikes.

I wonder what countries score "super healthy" on the Freedom Index. I might look into learning more about places that value personal freedom, tool making, and integrity.

I think about "Govopoly" and what it means. I like how you repeat Govopoly's meaning more than just a few times. New words like that feel fuzzy in my head as I begin to understand what they mean. Same goes for "moral hazard." Sure, I read about moral hazard for many years, yet I value you explaining what moral hazard is more than just a few times. Hey wait a second, you do that with the word "economist," too! Yeah, I like that, thanks.

While I read "Govopoly" I wonder about the fractal nature of businesses and the economy. Yep, our economy moves in cycles, the largest of which seems to be the Assimilation Cycle. And within that economy I think about various companies, companies that may or may not be part of the Govopoly. It seems like when I interview for a new job that sometimes the folks doing the interviewing are more interested in hiring someone who will make them look good and not be a professional threat to them. They want to hire someone competent, but not too competent. Seems like there's a lot of turf protecting going on. Govopoly seems fractal in that sense to me.

System dynamics seems like something really cool that I need to learn a lot more about. I wonder if I might take some undergrad CS classes with the intention of applying to Georgia Tech's on-line MS of CS program. Seems like many of the jobs out there demand coding skills. I might like to do that. Georgia Tech, like MIT, seems to want to remove barriers to learning for those who really want to learn. Same goes for Sal Khan's Academy. Man, I get emotional thinking about open learning and Sal Khan's Academy! Here's a guy who wants to help people learn! MIT does, too. Yeah, let's get the word out, let's teach and learn. I like that.

Your point about "triggers" and how they're just a small bit of the dynamics of a system, that's interesting to think about. I think about a simple trend following system that "triggers" off of a breakout. I wonder if there's more to identifying a money-making trend. Seems like the breakout, while certainly very important, seems like that breakout might just be a trigger for that system's dynamics. Yep, there's probably more I can do to build a good trend following system. I feel like learning more about system dynamics of trends. Learning more there might make my trend following system more profitable with less risk.

Thinking more about economists and how most sell out to their political "employers," I think about an economist named Steve Keen out of Australia and how he builds dynamic economic systems. I might go re-read some of Steve's papers, he seems like he might be on board with the Assimilation Cycle way of thinking.

I wonder now who might be a real good second generation or third generation system dynamics teacher. Yeah, Senor Forrester was first gen. You're second gen. Who wants to lead the way next? Might be good to learn a few names. Seems like I can do some research there.

I like this line: "Extrapolation actually works pretty well to predict the position of a heavy freight train rolling on a straight, level track." That makes me laugh.

I also like this line: "I like to define trend trading as the systematic attrition of capital with occasional large gains." That seems so right.

I also like this line: "...you have to forget trying to figure things out and learn, instinctively, to buy into strong trends whether or not you understand them, and particularly when you do not." That last part is the best part.

And this thought: "[Learn to do what you like to do] in a duckweed pond." Hey, duckweed covers 100% of Turtle Pond up here in NYC last summer. This year I might take a picture of it every day to keep track of things.

Ed, thanks so much for writing your new book. I enjoy reading it and learn lots. Mostly I learn it's okay to watch something you love stumble and then fall to pieces. I may not like it but maybe I ride some profitable trends and protect my family along the way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTsRTU9C3I8 ("Stumble" by R.E.M. - The first 50 seconds is all you need.)

Sincerely,

P.S. Page 270, sixth line down, first word... I feel like a stickler for pointing it out but for some reason believe you'd like to know.

Feb 1, 2014

Receives Govopoly

Dear Ed,

I receive the book on 1-31-2014, my birthday. A very nice birthday gift and I have a feeling of excitement and wonder at what I will learn. I am in the process of digging into it now, so far I love it - and will report back.

Thanks for the gift!

Regards

Jan 28, 2014

Developing Calm During Crisis

Dear Ed,

Thank you for sharing your feelings, a-ha's, insights, models and research in Govopoly.

I feel pleasant surprise when I open my mail and notice how thick the book is. Right now I smile as I'm thinking about your work.

I usually feel the urge to wring my hands, grit my teeth and fight the Govopoly trend. I feel strangely calm and at peace with it. Most of my thinking is in the direction of how my family and clients can prosper from the way things are.

I notice a shift in my perspective on our fractional reserve system from fear and loathing to deep curiosity. It's also pretty cool your book answers a question I ponder at the Incline Village Trading Tribe sessions four years ago: is there an optimal tax structure that allows the free enterprise system to grow and still produces revenue for the government?

I feel inspiration to follow through with Prof. Forrester's K-12 challenge on a local level - I am planning an outline for a Systems Dynamics presentation for my son's first grade class.

If this isn't "under-Fred" at work, I don't know what is: last summer, I search "39th day" on your site.

Sincerely,

Jan 26, 2014

The 39th Day: Wants More


Hello Ed,

Congratulations on the completion of your book, you must feel a sense of elation seeing the final product come together from those initial thoughts 43 years ago. The 39th day is an unconventional and thought provoking addition to the literature on economics, politics, trading and serves as a great introduction to TTP.

After reading through your book, I have a sense that I want more. Your work, The Trader's Window appearing in Schwager's 2nd Wizard book, is a powerful parable on how a trader learns about the markets. While I read it, I feel a sense of kinship with the legions of traders, past, present and future and what they go through during the learning process. I wonder if there is anything more to The Trader's Window that you may be willing to share with us.

Congratulations again Ed.

Regards,

Jan 19, 2014

Govopoly: Seventh Grader Gets It

Chief,

I thank you for taking the time and other valuable resources to publish this epic book.

I am in the second iteration of reading it and I still marvel at the clarity that your writing method - SVO-p without "to be" offers. My seventh grader comprehends the book very well and he tells me that Govopoly belongs to mandatory reading list for all schools. And I agree.

This book is the only one out there that I know of that presents the truths about our pseudo-capitalistic society, how to deal with it as a society and as an individual.

Your treatment of the section on system dynamics is super and I feel joy just reading it and playing with the models.

I find EcoNowMics page on trading tribe website as an excellent resource for those who might have further interest in learning modeling. Another resource I think is useful is - "Thinking in systems - A primer" by Donella H. Meadows. Finally, the Road Maps from M.I.T is also a useful resource but is now in a package that Systems Dynamics Society sells. I think it might be useful to readers if you include these in the resources page of the book website.

The extensive web references are awesome. I am not a web designer but I appreciate the amount of work that goes into such a resource. Web sites or their contents frequently change and I suppose over time, some of these resource links may not return the reference page(s). I wonder if there is a way to copy the original reference pages and embed them on your server or site to prevent this possibility.

There is a trivial typo on page 147 paragraph two: "In position 2, .....height. At at smaller ....". The second "at" is the typo.

Thank you very much for your contribution to my growth and that of my essential tribe.

Jan 17, 2014

Gradually, Then Suddenly

Ed,

In Reading Govopoly, can relate to Earnest Hemingway as he wrote in "The Sun also Rises"

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked

"Two ways" Mike said, "Gradually, then suddenly."

Jan 16, 2014

Powerful Argument

Dear Ed:

Thanks for your handsome and powerfully argued new book. I am surprised that you organized it and got it in a hard-cover publication so soon. The book is unique in the way you have handled illustrations.

I hope the message becomes widespread.

When I published "World Dynamics," I went to a newsstand that had out of town newspapers, found columnists and editors who looked like they would be interested, and sent each a copy. That launched a world-wide debate. If you have not yet done so, you might try to reach the comparable people now. Are they the TV people and bloggers and those who communicate through Twitter and Facebook?

Best wishes,

Jan 1, 2014

Govopoly Review

Easy Ed,

Congratulations on publishing your informative work, after so many years of preparation.

I read it over the recent holidays and can now say; Wow ! You have provided people with a 'map' to help them fully understand what is happening, as it happens. The info is a great gift of critical knowledge to all... Prof. Forrester is absolutely right - and your book should also be required reading for students, to help them prepare for life's many obstacles and so they will recognise opportunities to offset and benefit from these situations as well.

You might also like to quickly watch the below video (before the Govopoly takes it off ...)

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=BNRT0P-oZfw#t=398

Kind regards,

PS: It's quite interesting that you chose one complete cycle for the number of pages and how you very subtly intertwined major trading principals, system design and various other subjects and ideas, throughout the text and pictures. It is a wonderful and easy to understand aha book, and you are to be truly commended on this accomplishment.

----- [ Ed Replies ] -----

Thank you for your support.

In Govopoly, I take the position that Assimilation transcends political parties. I do not advocate taking sides with one party or another.


Dec 29, 2013

More on Robber Barons - see previous

Ed,

FYI, here is another related, later book by the same author:

http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Robber-Barons-Business-America/dp/0963020315

The Myth of the Robber Barons describes the role of key entrepreneurs in the economic growth of the United States from 1850 to 1910. The entrepreneurs studied are Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller, James J. Hill, Andrew Mellon, Charles Schwab, and the Scranton family. Most historians argue that these men, and others like them, were Robber Barons. The story, however, is more complicated. The author, Burton Folsom, divides the entrepreneurs into two groups market entrepreneurs and political entrepreneurs.

The market entrepreneurs, such as Hill, Vanderbilt, and Rockefeller, succeeded by producing a quality product at a competitive price.

The political entrepreneurs such as Edward Collins in steamships and in railroads the leaders of the Union Pacific Railroad were men who used the power of government to succeed. They tried to gain subsidies, or in some way use government to stop competitors.

Regards,

----- [ Ed Replies ] -----

Thank you for the link and information.

Some writers divide entrepreneurs into two groups: the Govopolists and the Free-Market guys - and implicitly assume permanace - that once in a group, a guy stays there.

In Govopoly, I present this dynamic: as an economy develops, the Govopoly System assimilates the economy, and the Free-Market guys with it. Young bucks start off entrepreneurial; once they make it to the top, they seek alliances wih government to stave off the new crop of young bucks.

Hill, whom you continue to cite, certainly starts off as one of the more entrepreneurial guys of his era - cutting costs, improving quality and beating the competition. Later on, he forms alliances with central bank progenators, such as J.P. Morgan.

For a more recent example of this dynamic, you might like to observe the evolving alliances and affiliations in Silicon Valley.

The term, Robber Baron, generally refers to people who create industries by serving large numbers of people better than others can. The choice of the term "Robber" confers prejudice useful to politicians who wish to regulate and extract benefits for themselves.


Dec 28, 2013

Political Entrepreneurs and Market Entrepreneurs

Hi Ed!

I see the book, I want to help socialize it. Current ground rules prevent me from Tweeting images like this:

Therefore, I am hereby requesting formal authorization to Tweet images (for example, this one) from this page, so that I can help socialize your writing and ideas:

http://39thday.com/Peek/index.html

Regarding Govopoly, here is a story of a man who irritated and provoked Govopolists to action, by being too good at creating value, while refraining from sucking up to government:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_J._Hill

James Jerome Hill (September 16, 1838 – May 29, 1916), was a Canadian-American railroad executive. He was the chief executive officer of a family of lines headed by the Great Northern Railway, which served a substantial area of the Upper Midwest, the northern Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest. Because of the size of this region and the economic dominance exerted by the Hill lines, Hill became known during his lifetime as The Empire Builder.

http://www.thebirdman.org/Index/Others/Others-Doc-Economics&Finance/+Doc-Economics&Finance-GovernmentInfluence&Meddling/PoliticalEntrepreneur-Hill&TheGreatNorthernRailroad.htm


...The story of James J. Hill is documented in the book "Entrepreneurs Versus The State" by Burton W. Folsom, Jr.

In that book, Folsom identifies how throughout history there have been two distinct types of entrepreneurs: political entrepreneurs and market entrepreneurs. Political entrepreneurs seek profits by working with the government to get subsidies, grants, and special privileges. They seek success through political pull. In contrast, market entrepreneurs seek success by producing increasingly improved values, products, and services at increasingly lower costs.

Book:

http://www.amazon.com/Entrepreneurs-Vs-State-Burton-Folsom/dp/0895265737

I look forward to the opportunity to purchase your book.

Kind Regards,


----- [ Ed Replies ] -----


Thank you for sharing your observations.

Yes, you may tweet away.

Govopoly in the 39th Day shows how the balance between Political Entrepreneurs and Market Entrepreneurs evolves over the lifetime of an economy.

It shows how Govopolists (your PE's) assimilate the Free Competition Sector (your ME's) - and it shows how assimilation occurs naturally, inexorably and toward the end, quite rapidly.

It also suggests how to employ Trading Tribe skills in dealing with the evolving situation.

Incidentally, you might like to notice that, in the day, James Hill works closely with J.P. Morgan during the great short squeeze of 1901 - when they try to outbid Harriman, Rockefeller and Schiff for control of the Northern Pacific. Later on, these players all hop on the same team as key progenitors of central banking.

Dec 23, 2013

Best Wishes

Ed -

Best wishes and congratulations on the book's publishing!

Cheers,


Dec 19, 2013

Beautiful

Hi Ed,

I just receive Govopoloy in the 39th Day.

Beautiful!


October 22, 2013

Shadow Economy

Hello,

I notice this article from Forbes.com about the shadow economy. It discusses people working "under the table" due to their inability to find regular jobs, as well as their rising frustration with government regulation and taxation. I thought it fit perfectly with your book Govopoly.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2011/11/07/rise-of-the-shadow-economy-second-largest-economy-in-the-world/

Thank you,


October 22, 2013

Seykota Sees Inflation and Crash at IFTA Presentation

Ed Seykota see coming a crash . Once a year, technical analysts from around the world gather to talk more about . The umbrella organization asks for IFTA annual conference. This October, they found themselves together in San Francisco. Our " foreign reporters" Reinhard Scholl was there and further reports of his impressions . And here you can find the previous comments about the conference (Part 1 , Part 2, Part 3 ) .The presentation of Ed Seykota - a well known investment legend - it was serious . And that is no allusion to his banjo and singing performance of a trading his songs (for details , see: here).

Rather like Seykota busy with system modeling. This is true not only for his pioneering work in trading systems , but also for larger, macroeconomic models . On the clock by Ed Seykota it's five to twelve.

A key driver is the national debt of the United States.

Than the absolute height , but also the rate of increase is preparing Ed Seykota concern. If the long-term exponential growth continue , it will have extraordinary consequences , as the speaker is vividly :

In this context, its system model outlined more mutually dependent factors .

The "freedom index" falls significantly . Legislation and regulations in all sectors are increasingly dominating the lives of citizens . The government itself represents ( govpoly ) a monopoly , with growing influence . The collapse of free competition ( free competition) is one of the consequences . Along with the increasing indebtedness will take place a price explosion (price) .

So will we soon see a runaway inflation ? This would be a clear counter-cyclical forecast at current interest rates . However, a sharp increase in inflation , it would undoubtedly be . A crash in the markets would be just one of the consequences. Also the flight , for example in precious metals is likely to be one of the consequences . Ed Seykota takes the matter seriously. He recommends his audience ever to self- supply ( house, land , food) set .

Nor is it , this is a model and a forecast , but a series of past developments maps and they continue to write in the future.

This was the last report of the IFTA Conference , 2013, San Francisco. The next conference will IFTA way from 9 to 11 October 2014, London.


Debt Grows Exponentially


Reaction When People Wake Up To The Situation


Assimilation Model

Good investing,

http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/live-aus-san-francisco-ifta-konferenz-teil-4-crash,a3259484.html